In January and February 2022, thousands of transport truckers flooded the streets of Canada’s capital and the country’s border crossings, occupying both for weeks. Anger at vaccine mandates for crossborder truckers sparked the protest, but it quickly spiraled into an anti-mask, anti-government, and staunchly anti-Justin Trudeau movement. As the protests became increasingly violent and its ties to white nationalism and right-wing conspiracy theories were revealed, political leaders across the political spectrum rushed to express their condemnation. However, one Member of Parliament refused to do so.
Instead, MP Pierre Poilievre went down to a highway overpass to greet the truckers as they rolled into Ottawa. With the horns that would soon echo through the streets of Ottawa for weeks blaring behind him, Poilievre declared ‘Freedom, not fear. Truckers, not Trudeau.’ Poilievre said that he stood for all Canadians hurt by mandates: those who had lost their jobs and businesses, who had children who now felt lonely and depressed, and who felt abandoned by the country’s political system.
He told his supporters that Trudeau, his Liberal Government, and the media were the enemy, and that he was ready to take them on. Using this populist rhetoric, Poilievre gained more power and support. In September 2022, he won Canada’s Conservative Party leadership race, becoming the official Leader of the Opposition and the man positioned to challenge Justin Trudeau in the next election.
In the late 2010s, Canada was seen as one of the last bastions of liberal democracy, seemingly immune to the wave of right-wing, anti-establishment populism that carried America’s Trump, Hungary’s Orbán, Poland’s Law and Justice Party, and the UK’s Brexit movement to the forefront of global politics. In contrast, Canada was lauded for its openness to immigration and multiculturalism. In 2015, when then Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper mentioned the possibility of a niqab ban for federal employees, he was roundly condemned and—although also due to several other factors—his party was routed in that year’s election. Since being elected, Justin Trudeau has maintained Canada’s anti-populist position, pushing for a gender-equal cabinet, promoting multiculturalism, and actively criticizing populism itself.
However, Canada’s position as the darling child of liberal democracy is facing its greatest challenge yet. Although not as extreme as his European or American counterparts, Pierre Poilievre is folding right-wing populism into the mainstream of Canadian politics.
Canada’s Newest Populist
Poilievre, by all widely-accepted definitions, is a populist. Populism, understood as an ideology that pits a ‘pure people’ against a ‘corrupt elite’ using an us-versus-them discourse, has been on the rise in the last 20 years and is increasingly being used in tandem with far-right and/or nationalist rhetoric. The 64-second clip in which Poilievre declares ‘Freedom, not fear’ is a textbook example of populism.
In his speech, Poilievre identifies the corrupt elite as Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party, as well as the ‘media.’ He fires off a list of regular Canadians who have been harmed by Trudeau’s vaccine mandates and limits on individual freedom, and identifies himself as the voice of those people.
In subsequent statements, Poilievre has added the independent Bank of Canada to his list of enemies, as well as Canada’s public broadcaster, the CBC, while drafting alienated Western Canadian voters to his chorus of victims of the Trudeau Liberals. He has flirted with conspiracy theories, pushing some questionable views about vaccinations and the ‘globalist’ World Economic Forum. Poilievre has gathered his ‘people,’ lined up the ‘elite,’ and positioned himself as the man to take them down.
Why Populism Now?
Poilievre’s successful election as leader of the Conservative Party gives rise to the question: ‘Why now?’ Canada possesses many of the same features that have been key indicators to mark a country primed for populism, but has largely avoided this side of politics until recently. What has caused this change?
Although populism had not gone mainstream in Canada before Poilievre, populist support has been growing across the country. In the last three Conservative leadership campaigns, there was always a right-wing candidate who employed populist rhetoric, raising concerns about immigration and questioning Canada’s position on multiculturalism.
One of those leadership hopefuls was a man named Maxime Bernier who, after losing his Conservative leadership bid, started the more explicitly populist, far-right People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Although the PPC has failed to win a seat in Canada’s first-past-the-post parliamentary system, they garnered 1.6% of the vote in their inaugural 2019 election and increased their support to 4.9% in their campaign in 2021.
Canada’s West—a term used to describe the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba—historically has had a cozier relationship with the populist right. A common source of populist anger in these provinces is ‘Western Alienation,’ a concept advocating that Canada’s central provinces, Ontario and Quebec, have significant control over federal politics at the expense of the Western provinces. Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, who served as Prime Minister in the 70s and 80s, was one of the most consistent targets of anger from Canada’s western provinces, as his policies of increased energy-sector nationalization redistributed oil industry-derived wealth from mainly Alberta and Saskatchewan to the rest of the country.
Canada’s original modern populist movement, the Reform Party, was born from Western Alienation. It was founded by a man named Preston Manning, who coincidentally represented Poilievre’s childhood riding. During its existence from 1987-2000, the party was able to become the Official Opposition in Parliament by capturing feelings of Western Alienation and anti-Ottawa sentiment, placing the blame for this perceived exclusion and the prioritization of Quebec over the rest of the country at the feet of both the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives in Ottawa.
Poilievre has picked up on this phenomenon, taking advantage of it during his leadership campaign, and continued to emphasize the country’s regional divisions as the new leader of the Conservatives. But a history of populism, especially in Canada’s West, does not explain why it has emerged into mainstream federal politics now. The somewhat boring but accurate answer to this question is that there is no one answer in particular; rather, a number of factors have contributed to an environment ripe for populist support.
Covid, Conspiracy Theories, and Anti-Trudeau Anger
The first contributing factor is the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In an attempt to respond to the virus, the Canadian government and its provincial peers imposed some of the strictest policies and longest lockdowns in the world. These health measures were effective in ensuring hospitals were able to function, but came with restrictions on individual liberties and negative impacts on mental health.
These negative consequences contributed to a general anger many Canadians hold against the impact the pandemic had on their lives. It has also provided the opportunity for a populist to place the blame at the hands of government actors who were influential in making those decisions.
The pandemic was also a breeding ground for conspiracy theories. As people were isolated, looking for any sources of information they could find about, initially, the virus and, later, the vaccines, websites and groups promoting conspiracy theories gained prominence. There is a close relationship between conspiracy theories—especially those that target the government—and populist support. As these conspiracy theories grew in the darker days of the pandemic, so did the opportunities for populist politicians to take advantage of them.
Finally, Justin Trudeau is the prime target for populist anger. He has already cracked the top ten list of longest serving Canadian prime ministers and his progressive, ‘woke’ politics represent the exact values and issues that right-wing populist supporters tend to loathe. Trudeau has also faced a number of patronage and political scandals from which he emerged generally scratch-free, but these have created a perception amongst some voters that he is above the law.
He is also the son of a divisive Canadian prime minister, having grown up surrounded by the political establishment and attending an elite high school and university for his education. He has a polished style of public speaking and generally stays very committed to the party line. He is the exact kind of political elite who populists hate and no one has taken advantage of that more than Pierre Poilievre.
There is no one reason why Canadians’ immunity to right-wing populism appears to be waning. But the combination of a underlying history of populist support, especially in Canada’s West, the impact of the pandemic and conspiracy theories, as well as anger directed at Justin Trudeau have all provided the perfect toolkit for Pierre Poilievre to put pressure on the Liberal Government and challenge them in the next election.
What Does This Mean for Canada?
What this means for the future of Canada is unclear. Poilievre may moderate his positions somewhat, or perhaps push aside some of his more controversial statements, but he is unlikely to forgo much of his rhetorical style or core populist messaging. Recent Conservative leaders have tried and failed to move closer towards the centre to take votes from the Liberal Party. Poilievre looks ready to attempt the opposite, focusing on support amongst the far-right and increasing general right-wing voter turnout. This may be a successful approach, but Poilievre already has high unfavourability scores within the broader population for a brand new party leader. His ties to the trucker protest, which was widely unpopular amongst Canadians, may also dog him as his career continues.
What the election of Pierre Poilievre does mean is that populism has come to Canada and it has gone mainstream. This will impact the norms and rules of Canadian politics, changing the line of what is deemed acceptable and appropriate for federal politicians. How severe those changes will be is hard to guess, but fans of liberal democracy and students of populism should keep a close eye on Pierre Poilievre and Canadian politics over the next few years.