When Joe Biden took office from Donald Trump on 20 January 2021, he promised a return to normalcy in America. Yet, as Biden marked his first year in the White House this past week, his administration has been beset by slumping poll numbers and is reportedly planning a “reset.”
What’s gone wrong for the US president, and where has he made progress despite criticism? Here’s an overview of Biden’s performance in five key areas:
COVID-19
Biden came out of the gates swinging in tackling the pandemic. The White House more than doubled its initial target of delivering 100 million vaccine doses in Biden’s first 100 days. Through budget reconciliation, Democrats also passed the sweeping $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in March, which put $1,400 checks into the hands of eligible taxpayers.
Since his quick start, however, Biden’s momentum on COVID-19 has stalled. The White House still hasn’t cracked the code of how to persuade roughly 40 million vaccine-hesitant Americans to get the jab. As the Omicron variant reveals, the shape-shifting nature of the virus has also left the administration flat-footed on essential tasks like disseminating millions of at-home tests.
Biden’s “follow-the-science” approach has clearly been a refreshing improvement over Trump. Despite a recent surge in infections, the White House is also right about the basic state of COVID-19 in America: “this isn’t March 2020.” Still, Biden’s low approval ratings in handling the pandemic suggest a mismatch between Biden’s vow to “defeat” COVID-19 and the reality of its persistence.
The Economy
After a self-imposed downturn in 2020, the world’s largest economy has mostly been on the upswing since January 2021. Over that time, US GDP has increased approximately 5.5%. The S&P 500 Index is up nearly 26%. Unemployment has dwindled to 4.2%. Recent evidence also points to rising wages for workers in the lower rungs of the income distribution.
At the same time, economic challenges loom under Biden. Global supply chain disruptions have frustrated efforts to ensure a broad-based and stable recovery, especially for the middle class. Consumer confidence is sluggish. Most notably, mounting concerns over inflation—aggravated by expansions in federal spending—reached 7% in December, the highest figure in almost 40 years.
Presidents are often given too much credit (or blame) for the trajectory of the US economy. Against the backdrop of a still-raging global pandemic, however, Biden can’t be too disappointed with America’s economic indicators. Especially compared to parts of Europe, the outlook could be much worse.
Unifying the Country
Amid the embers of January 6th, Biden pledged in his inaugural address to “heal,” “repair,” and “restore” American democracy. This much is clear: he hasn’t yet unified the country. Partisan fractionalization isn’t Biden’s fault. But neither has he made much of a dent in the problem.
Compared to Trump, Biden has changed the overall tone from the bully pulpit. At times, however, Biden has also been willing to use divisive language. Case in point: a recent speech on voting rights in Georgia, where he accused Republicans of promoting “Jim Crow 2.0” and siding with segregationists.
Many Trump supporters appear more resolute than ever under Biden. Resilient conspiracy theories over a stolen 2020 election and (credible) rumors about a Trump 2024 comeback dominate headlines. A recent datapoint, that four in ten Republicans now think violence against the government is justified, exemplifies the degree of divisions afflicting U.S politics.
Domestic Policy
In proposing a massive $6 trillion in federal spending before his first State of the Union address, Biden was tugged along early on in his term by the left flank of his party. Ever since, he’s struggled to unite moderate Democrats behind signature legislative priorities despite controlling both chambers of Congress.
Fortunately for Biden, his $1 trillion infrastructure bill was unexpectedly saved by House Republicans in November after members of the Progressive Caucus held the legislation hostage for months. However, Biden’s second infrastructure bill, Build Back Better, seems hopelessly stalled in the Senate after West Virginia centrist Joe Manchin rejected the bill.
Nonetheless, even if Biden gets no more substantial bills enacted, his legislative record can’t be considered a failure. Passing a major infrastructure bill was a goal that both Barack Obama and Donald Trump tried (and failed) to achieve. Although imperfect, it’s far from a small accomplishment.
Foreign Policy
America’s unceremonious exit from its 20-year war Afghanistan was the definitive low point of Biden’s 2021 foreign policy. Despite scapegoating Trump for an inherited timeline for troop drawdowns, Biden owns the botched withdrawal. Still, polling data show that most Americans weren’t sorry to see the US end a conflict that’s cost the country more than $2 trillion and thousands of lives.
Biden’s first year on the global stage did have a number of upsides. Re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization marked a welcomed pivot away from Trump’s “belligerent isolationism.” At COP-26, Biden signalled that America could be a reliable partner in confronting climate change. As part of its “tilt to Asia,” Biden has also taken an appropriately tough (albeit largely status quo) posture toward China.
Despite some high-profile missteps in communicating with international partners, the White House’s “America Is Back” platform has been effective in reaching out to Western allies. Biden hasn’t fully restored America’s reputation abroad, but simply by not being Trump, he’s moved the needle in the right direction. The escalating crisis over Russian and Ukraine, however, could pose a major test of Biden’s leadership in NATO.
Next Up: 2022
Like all US presidents, Biden’s first year in office wasn’t an unqualified success, but neither was it devoid of successes. With his honeymoon period over and prospects of Democratic defeats in the midterm elections looming, however, a “reset”—at least on public messaging—is likely warranted. Governing won’t get easier in 2022.
Thomas Gift is Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics (CUSP) at University College London.