In 2013, prominent Canadian political commentators John Ibbitson and Darryl Bricker famously declared the end of the Liberal Party’s dominance over Canadian politics through the collapse of its coalition, the “Laurentian Consensus.” In its place, they heralded an era defined by a new Conservative coalition that would grow in strength over the coming years.
Yet, a decade later and on the cusp of another federal election, their projection seems almost comical.
Currently, the governing Liberal Party appears to hold a substantial lead over the Conservative Party in national polls, suggesting the latter may be, once again, locked out of power. However, while the Liberals’ rosy prospects heading into a 2021 election can be partially attributed to their popularity under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, internal divides within the Conservative Party—its primary rival—are owed the real credit. Originally conceived as a big tent party merging together two distinct branches of conservatism in 2003, the Conservative Party has since struggled to present a coherent vision to voters. Thus, the state of Canadian party politics in 2021 raises the question: how well do big tent parties really work?
The Illusory Popularity of Trudeau’s Liberals
The future of Canada’s centre-left Liberal Party seemed bleak in 2011. Under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the Conservative Party of Canada was victorious in the 41st federal election, which secured them a strong majority government. On the other hand, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberal Party won a mere 34 seats, the fewest seats ever won by the party since its founding in 1861.
It appeared the political left had abandoned the Liberal Party—a party so dominant over the 20th century that Canadian political scientist Kenneth Carty proclaimed it the “natural governing party of Canada.” It was in the wake of the 2011 election results that political commentators Ibbitson, Bricker, and many others readily announced the downfall of the Liberal Party.
Then came the 2015 election and the Liberal Party’s new leader, Justin Trudeau, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. In an astonishing landslide, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals ousted Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party after nine long years in power. Pundits have credited the Liberals’ espousing “real change” from the Harper years and the effective mobilization of young people for the sweeping win.
Since then, Trudeau has remained in power and, just recently, has called a fresh election for fall 2021. Perplexingly, this call has come following several high-profile scandals and a deluge of condemnation for his lack of action in implementing platform promises. These scandals include the SNC-Lavalin affair, the surfacing of past images of Trudeau in blackface, and, most recently, allegations that WE Charity’s selection for the Canada Student Services Grant program was due to personal ties to the organization. On policy, Trudeau has received denunciations for backtracking on electoral reform and advocating for carbon pricing while also pushing pipelines. Despite words of commitment to reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, the Liberal government has also appealed a Human Rights Tribunal ruling ordering government compensation for Indigenous children and failed to end all boil water advisories in First Nations communities as promised.
It would therefore seem puzzling that the Liberals appear to have regained public support relative to the other parties following their slightly disappointing election result in 2019. However, still enveloped in the shroud of several scandals and burdened by a questionable record on policy, the Liberals’ hopeful trajectory is not entirely a result of their own popularity. Rather, it is thanks to the lack of a well-organized contender. The Green Party, at the moment, is in court against its own leader. Meanwhile, the NDP remains saddled with perpetual “third party” status within an electoral system that encourages strategic voting between two main competitors. Finally and most significantly, the Liberal Party has benefited from discord within its primary rival, the Conservative Party.
The Conservative Party’s Identity Crisis
Canada’s Conservative Party in 2021 is facing an identity crisis. On one side stands the more moderate, centre-right “Red Tory” branch. On the other can be found a more populist, far-right contingent. Between these two competing ideological wings, fundamental divides exist over its core values. For instance, disagreements between Conservative MPs on key issues like abortion, climate change, and LGBTQ2S rights have been brought out into the open, leading voters to question where the party really stands. Struggling to stay unified, the Conservatives’ dream of operating as a big tent party may very well hinder its chances for success in the fall election.
This conflict is not new. By revisiting the origins of the Conservative Party it is easy to see that these current divisions were almost inevitable. Founded in 2003, the present-day Conservative Party resulted from the merger of two parties, the right-wing Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) and the centre-right Progressive Conservative Party. This merger was born out of a desire to avoid vote-splitting among conservative parties and create a united front to more effectively compete with the Liberal Party. Thus, from the beginning, the modern Conservative Party has comprised these two camps.
For the first decade, these divisions were mostly glossed over under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the former leader of the Canadian Alliance who had jointly led the merger with Progressive Conservative Peter MacKay. Yet after nine years in power, Harper ultimately was defeated in the 2015 election. His loss stemmed from criticisms of leading in a manner considered too dictatorial, particularly over backbencher MPs, “muzzling scientists,” and excessively extending the campaigning period for elections.
Without its founding leader, the Conservative Party has needed a new unifying figure behind whom they can rally. This has proven to be an exceptionally difficult task. The two leaders who have followed Harper were seemingly selected as compromise picks that neither offended nor excited either wing of the party.
Although dubbed “Harper with a smile,” the Conservatives’ new leader following the 2015 defeat, Andrew Scheer, never managed to garner the same support from the party as his predecessor. Narrowly winning the 2017 Conservative Party leadership race, Scheer’s control over the party was precarious. Just over two years later, in December 2019, Scheer resigned as leader amid allegations he had used party donations to pay for his children’s private school education.
Fast-forward to the summer of 2020. Erin O’Toole won the leadership of the Conservative Party on the third ballot, once again producing a result that was hardly definitive. A largely unremarkable figure, he has since barely made a dent in the public’s impressions, including in Alberta which is traditionally a dependable source of support for the Conservatives. While elected as a compromise pick between the moderate and more extreme wings of the party, the public at large seems unswayed. In a recent poll, O’Toole received an abysmal net approval rating of -21, the worst of all federal leaders. Many signs point to serious debate within the Conservative Party over whether O’Toole really is the right leader to ensure victory in future elections.
It has become increasingly clear that the Conservative Party will need to make serious changes before being a viable long-term competitor to the renewed Liberal Party. Its initial promise as a big tent party has not been realized. The Conservative Party’s identity crisis raises questions over how effective big tent parties can truly be when trying to tie together disparate political views. In other words, it appears that the ideological tent can only be stretched so far before a party starts to collapse.
What Now? The Conservative Party at a Crossroads
Several potential paths appear before the Conservative Party. One future possibility is that the party will splinter once again into two factions, officially dividing the right. This would mirror the emergence of the right-wing, Western-based Reform Party in the 1980s that rose up to offer a conservative alternative to the then-dominant Progressive Conservative Party. This has already been attempted in recent years by the notorious Maxime Bernier, the runner-up to the 2017 Conservative leadership race that eventually installed Andrew Scheer as leader. After resigning from the Conservative Party in 2018 citing ideological differences, Bernier built up a new far-right party called the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). His goal was to create an alternative to what he viewed as an overly moderate mainstream Conservative Party.
However, the PPC’s prospects as a reasonable alternative are dim. In the 2019 federal election, the PPC failed to win any seats while Bernier was not even re-elected to his own seat in Beauce, Québec. Bernier also struggles in being taken seriously as a political leader. He resigned from the Conservative cabinet in 2008 for leaving classified documents at the house of his girlfriend who was revealed to have ties to criminal biker gangs. Moreover, just this past summer, Bernier was arrested for violating public health guidelines during a COVID-19 anti-lockdown protest.
A genuine splintering of the party also seems unrealistic as the recent 2020 Conservative leadership race shows that the far-right still appears to see a home within the Conservative Party—at least for now. Although O’Toole secured the party leadership, the further right-wing candidates Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan garnered more votes than many expected. This suggests that more populist, far-right voters have not yet deserted the Conservative Party.
All these considerations indicate that the moderate “Red Tories” and more right-wing “Blue Tories” will continue to walk the same political path for the foreseeable future. However, if the past five years have been an indication, its current formula of masking over these divisions with unremarkable leaders that are inoffensive to both branches of the party appears to be an unwinnable strategy.
Perhaps a new unifying figure will emerge to satisfy both wings of the party and lead the Conservatives to victory. Given the myriad of criticisms one could lobby at Trudeau’s Liberals, the Conservatives seem to have a prime opportunity for a successful return to government. Nevertheless, for most conservatives, this hope seems elusive. The history of the modern Conservative Party suggests that big tent parties are not as effective nor as easy to hold together as they might seem. It will take much more than a single leader to resolve these issues intrinsic to the structure of the party itself. In the meantime, the Conservative Party will remain in turmoil, failing to articulate a clear vision of itself to voters heading into the 2021 federal election.