Western vaccines have made headlines across the world with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna leading the way. Yet their Chinese counterparts have gone largely unnoticed. There are four main producers working on five separate vaccines in China who all face the same issue: that China, using swift and strict lockdowns, among other measures, has effectively dealt with the pandemic. As such, producers look beyond their borders, to countries like Chile, Pakistan and Indonesia, for participants in their clinical trials. For vaccine developers, this is a challenge, but it is also a diplomatic opportunity. While the US is scrambling to keep its own people alive, China can afford to look further afield and seize opportunities elsewhere.
China has spent the last seven years pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), giving it unparalleled access to countries ranging from Nigeria to Turkey to Indonesia. This initiative is often discussed by academics and journalists alike, but never before will its physical infrastructure prove so important, as the Silk Road economic belt and maritime Silk Road become the conveyor for distributing vaccines, with China at the epicentre.
Moreover, the vaccines themselves could prove attractive for many developing states. Much discussion has centred around the temperature-controlled storage boxes necessary for the Pfizer vaccine. Meanwhile, both the Sinovac Biotech and CNBG vaccines, two of the forerunners amongst the Chinese vaccine producers, are ignoring the advancements being touted by mRNA technology, and using more basic vaccination methods, whereby people are vaccinated with the “killed” virus. This does not have the same refrigeration requirements as mRNA based vaccines, and so storage in warmer climates across South America and Africa would be much easier, as well as less expensive, a consideration which bears unfortunate relevancy for impoverished nations.
All this exists in tandem with another pronounced fact: the greed of Western developed nations. The People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organizations and world leaders, has criticised them for hoarding vaccines, with countries securing enough vaccines to give to two, three and four times their populations. While this is dependent on the vaccines in question passing clinical trials, it still points to a key issue, which is that the developing world is facing severely delayed access to vaccines, as things stand. Off the back of this, Xi Jinping has declared that the vaccine will be “a public good“, and China is working with the WHO-backed COVAX Facility, committing to rapid, fair and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. All the while, the US continues to boycott the WHO.
Over the past few months, China has made a number of moves which have backfired or aroused suspicion among the international community, leaving its global image in question. They have been engaging in so-called ‘donation diplomacy’, trying to extend their reaches and garner goodwill around the world. Thus far, these efforts have been less than successful. Many of their actions were viewed with suspicion, and a portion of the countries who received Chinese donated personal protective equipment (PPE) rejected it, questioning the quality of face masks and tests. Moreover, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian lashed out at Australia with a provocative tweet, which many believe is part of a larger dispute with Australia, which saw Prime Minister Scott Morrison call for an investigation into China’s actions at the origins of the pandemic. China has also been quick to jump on any information which may undermine the idea that they are at fault for the pandemic. In late November, Italian researchers found evidence of antibodies developed to the SARS-CoV-2 by cancer patients in late 2019, months before the virus was first detected in Lombardy. Chinese media outlets have used this to cast doubt on the origins of the pandemic, while the study’s authors maintain that the first clusters of the virus in humans emerged in Wuhan. Nonetheless, it is clear that China has been trying to shape public perception of itself throughout the pandemic. Vaccines offer a new and potentially lucrative avenue for the country to explore in this regard.
China has spent the last number of years fighting battles for influence across the world. Their pull across the developing world in particular has been on the rise. This quest is driven by both internal and external factors, but whatever the underlying reasons, the current climate presents China with an unparalleled opportunity to cement that influence. As western powers look inward, and try to protect their own people, China can present itself as the benevolent world power, coming to the aid of developing nations. The BRI and easier-to-handle vaccines can aid China in this regard.
If successful, China can expect the perception on the ground in nations it chooses to help to turn favourably towards them. The media frenzy around vaccines has given citizens more exposure to the world of pharmaceutical development than most have ever had before. People will know where their vaccines are coming from. What this knowledge will mean for China is hard to quantify. However, it is likely that people will be more amenable to Chinese infrastructure developments, which up to now have been a source of growing criticism of China, with respect to its shady lending practices. Ultimately, government lending practices are alien to most people, while the pandemic is very real.
Chinese goodwill is being disseminated with a degree of calculation that indicates China’s awareness of the opportunities before it. China is prioritising getting the vaccine to places where it will see the most benefit. Indonesia has secured at least 1.2 million doses of Sinovac’s vaccine, with a priority to make the tourist island of Bali a “green zone by the start of next year”. This suggests there is more than pure altruism to China’s vaccine distribution plans, as they aim to produce good economic outcomes, in tandem with positive health outcomes. Countries can expect to be reminded of these efforts as they recover from the pandemic, most likely by Chinese representatives in the midst of trade negotiations and disputes. Furthermore, countries across the developing world will see China as a power that cares about them – at least more than the US does. This fuels China’s own narrative that it is championing the rights of developing countries, be that in climate change negotiations or by providing economic support.
While all of this points towards China’s ability and desire to use COVID-19 vaccines to expand its soft power, this is not for certain. As mentioned, China tried to ingratiate itself with countries across the world by sending PPE to them, which backfired, leading to a waning public image. More broadly, China is still dealing with the backlash to its initial handling of the pandemic, with unfavourable views reaching historic highs. As such, it is reasonable to question how quickly countries will line up for a Chinese vaccine. If Chinese regulators are perceived to be corrupt or likely to mishandle the vaccine approval process, they may be locked out of certain countries, pending the review of a broader approval of the vaccine, either by countries themselves, or by the WHO.
With that said, however, before the pandemic, China was viewed as a positive influence across Africa. This goodwill may carry over into the vaccination approval process. Developing countries will also be facing this problem with a level of desperation, as they grapple with mounting economic issues on account of the pandemic, in addition to the health crisis. Countries like Mexico, Iran, Indonesia and Colombia are among those seeing the highest case-fatality ratios, which can be explained by poor healthcare systems, and the prevalence of underlying conditions.
China’s strategy is working. Already, the UAE and Bahrain have approved Chinese vaccines. Moreover, there are millions of orders for the vaccines so far. Indonesia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Turkey have all ordered particularly large quantities. Transparency from this point on would bolster their efforts further, but as things stand, the opportunity exists for China to make gains in the developing world in a way that it could not have foreseen before COVID. Effective vaccines could make for a successful foreign policy strategy, which could catapult China above the US in the eyes of many in emerging economies, and allow China to reap the associated economic and political rewards.
Leon Langdon is a graduate of Law with Politics from University College Dublin, and an incoming MA in International Relations student at NYU. He is also a George Moore Scholar, and his research interests include Asian politics, climate security and conflict resolution.