Introduction
Throughout the history of civilizations, the maritime domain has played a crucial role in establishing global and regional powers, and security architecture of geographical regions. The security umbrella established at the end of the Second World War in Indian and Pacific oceans remained unchallenged throughout the Cold War. However, the rise of China and its expansionist policies has once again brought the maritime domain, particularly the Indo-Pacific region at the forefront of current Great Power rivalries.
The Indo-Pacific region is a relatively new geopolitical space in the foreign policy terminology of India and the world. Indo-Pacific has been tossed around as a maritime strategy by colonialists and explorers in the past without ever using the terminology directly. In the contemporary era, the region gained dominance with the change in American leadership and rise of China. India has been ignorant in the past of the strategic importance of Indo-Pacific region and this has remained outside of India’s strategic interests, security architecture and foreign policy engagement. Troubles along its land borders, disputes on the Himalayan frontier and a peaceful Indian ocean has resulted in Indian Navy receiving the least share of defence spending and maritime security occupying the peripheries of strategic thinking. China’s military and economic expansion in the Indo-Pacific region has alerted India of the inevitability of these changing dynamics and it is aware that it cannot afford to continue ignoring the importance of maritime security in its foreign policy strategy. As reflected by the recently held Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad; Australia, Japan, and the United States recognise India as a crucial power in the region and supports and promotes it to play a bigger role in Indo-Pacific.
The emergence of China in India’s maritime sphere
India’s renewed interests in Indo-Pacific theatre were not as much about long-term strategic thinking but more of a reactive policy towards the increased presence of China in Indian ocean and growing proximity of island states in India’s vicinity to China. There has been a palpable change in India’s immediate neighbourhood and its role as the net security provider in the region is threatened by China’s overwhelming economic presence.
Over the years, many of India’s neighbours such as Maldives and Sri Lanka have seen her as the dominant power in the region that overlooks their concerns and challenges while unilaterally directing the narrative of the region at the global stage. The lack of strategic competition in the immediate neighbourhood helped India maintain its status quo for decades without ever significantly changing its outlook or geopolitical strategy. This allowed India to grow complacent in its maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean region. For instance, it was the first time in over two decades when an Indian head of government visited Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka in 2015. China, with its capital surplus and military strength, offered an alternative to India’s role as the net security provider and economic navigator in the region. China was able to gradually build up its presence in the region as these countries openly welcomed it. Asia, specifically South-East Asia, has seen an increased demand for infrastructure and connectivity, owing to its demography and rapid economic growth. The Belt and Road initiative by China aims to address this demand for better investments into infrastructure and connectivity in the region. The lack of a better alternative fuelled the demand for Beijing’s investment and eventually increased China’s engagement and presence in the Indian Ocean region.
While India cautiously watched the rise in Chinese investments and resulting presence in its immediate neighbourhood, it was not until 2017 that it took a firm stance against the Belt and Road initiative. Since then, India has unequivocally maintained that “no country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity”. By 2017, India’s concerns about the presence of China in the region through the unsustainable debts it levies on the island states in the region alarmed it when Sri Lankan government leased its Hambantota port to China for ninety-nine years as a part of the debt-to-equity swap. Similarly, ties between India and Maldives strained to an all-time low in 2012 when the Maldivian government handed over an international airport expansion project to a Chinese company after previously signing over the contract with India-based construction company, and later admitting to owing over $3 billion in debt to China.
Island nations such as the Maldives and Sri Lanka play a critical role in maritime strategy and naval warfare. These states can be used as military assets to secure trading routes and establish dominance in the great power competition. Yet unlike the colonial era, island nations have greater sovereignty and can significantly alter their foreign policy choices with keeping their domestic concern in the centre. Therefore in the tussle between great powers, hostile governments in these island states can complicate and challenge India’s maritime strategy and security in the Indian-Pacific region.
As the Indo-Pacific region became a critical theatre of opportunities for China to assert its dominance in the region, India failed to maintain or offer a clearer vision for the future. While smaller island states avoided choosing sides in the Sino-Indian or China-U.S. competition in the region, India also grew wary of being seen as a part of China-containment strategy by the U.S. As India re-examined its options and role in a dramatically altered neighbourhood, it had to balance its role as the net security provider of the region with aspirations of becoming a global superpower. It was only in 2018 at the Shangri-La Dialogue that India announced a clear Indo-Pacific vision and recognised regional partnerships as the core strategy in realising this vision.
Emerging opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region
The Shangri-La Dialogue in 2018 provides the framework and a peek into Indian strategy in the Indo-Pacific region. At the core of the speech by Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the role of partnership as the central pillar of India’s strategy. This was the watershed moment in India’s attitude towards island states and approach in the region, a shift from isolationist and reactive strategy to active engagement. Simultaneously, it was important for New Delhi to maintain that it was not part of any containment strategy, specifically directed at China and led by West, and that it valued strategic partnerships with the focus on the sovereignty of states as crucial to maintaining the sustainability of partnerships in the region. India acknowledged the existence of new security architecture in the region and that there was a shift in global power dynamics. It signaled that while it accepts new and regional order, it will support one that is based on rules and respects the sovereignty of the states. New Delhi recognised the value of Indo-Pacific maritime security and diplomacy in pursuing its own global strategic ambitions.
Australia, Japan, and the U.S. became New Delhi’s natural partners in its Indo-Pacific strategy because of shared interests and common value for democracy and respect for sovereignty. ASEAN became the central pillar of its maritime strategy and Indo-Pacific partnerships. New Delhi recognised the importance of partnerships in the Western Indian Ocean and Africa by forming new partnerships and multilateral agreements. New Delhi has stepped up its engagement with Mozambique, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with regard to making these partnerships as the key areas of interest in maritime security.
In addition to working with its ASEAN partners and immediate neighbours, New Delhi has deepened its relationships in the Western Indian Ocean. India conducts joint patrols with France in the Indian Ocean and is in a mutual support logistics agreement to access French military bases in the Indian Ocean. New Delhi recognises the essentiality of East Africa and Gulf in creating a positive narrative in the region. India has upgraded its relationship with the United Arab Emirates to Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships and conducted military drills with multiple African countries in the region. Simultaneously, India has strengthened its maritime partnerships and launched multiple initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative; SAGAR or Security and Growth for All in the Region; Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue; the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure; and the International Solar Alliance. In addition to building bilateral and multilateral partnerships, New Delhi is also investing in strengthening its defence; information; and surveillance capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. India is upgrading its Coastal Surveillance Network that provides comprehensive live monitoring of ship movements in the Indian Ocean region. Indian Navy also launched the Information Fusion Centre that allows sharing of information between friendly states on ship movements. Indian Navy’s ability to undertake anti-piracy, humanitarian relief, and disaster response missions in the Indo-Pacific region further boosts its image as the net security provider of the region.
The Indian Navy offers a significant advantage to India in realising its Indo-Pacific vision. The significant geographic advantage of Indian territory jutting into the Indian Ocean and an absence of Chinese naval bases in the Indian Ocean region offers a significant upper hand to India’s military strategy in the region that must be protected and strengthened at any cost. Yet with a marginal share of defence expenditure, Indian Navy continues to struggle with limited resources and capacity.
Geopolitical challenges and the path ahead
The acceptance of the Indo-Pacific region as a single geographical construct in international relations closely aligns with the shift in global power dynamics and the emergence of a multipolar world. This has also coincided with the emergence of China as a global economic power and its aggressive and ambitious expansion policies. This has challenged the established status quo of the region and image of India as the net security provider and guardian of the region.
Despite the pace of changing dynamics in Indo-Pacific region; aggressive policies by China; and political will-power of major powers, New Delhi has been extremely slow in establishing a clear vision for the future or in implementation of a road map for its vision. The policies have largely been reactive and out of response to the growing proximity of island states to China. New Delhi has also been extremely cautious, bordering on fearful, of being seen as a part of the larger west-dominated containment strategy and thus been hesitant at times in realising its vision.
Conclusion
New Delhi must continue emphasising on the respect for sovereignty, rules-based international system, and foundational principles of democracy- interests that it shares with its partners in Indo-Pacific while focusing on issue-based perspective. While traditional partners will continue to have a significant impact on India’s foreign policy in the region, India must explore newer partnerships and look for other non-traditional partners such as New Zealand and Philippines. As the Indo-Pacific vision matures and takes shape, countries must recognise that their vision will never completely align with others. There will always be issues of concern and thus they must work on shared areas of interests and look for sustainable and inclusive growth of the region.
Indo-Pacific has structurally altered India’s foreign policy approach and priorities. India’s current initiatives and renewed interests in the region are in response to the growing threat from China and a challenge to its unilateral dominance in the region. As such, the Indo-Pacific region is now a theatre of opportunities for India to explore and implement its foreign policy initiatives. This will continue to provide New Delhi with newer opportunities and fresh partnerships to secure its strategic interests and secure its profile as the global power. But the government must be open to seeking new partnerships and strengthening older relationships. Moving ahead, the actions of India in Indo-Pacific will shape its global narrative and lay the foundations for its greater role in establishing and maintaining global peace and security.
Dr. Ankit Raj is a fellow at the WHO Collaborating Centre on surgical care research in LMICs in Mumbai and a student in International Relations and Diplomacy at the Indian Institute of Governance and Leadership, New Delhi.