“All war is a symptom of man’s failure as a thinking animal.” – John Steinbeck
It has been a century since the First World War ended. Beginning as a relatively small conflict in South-eastern Europe, it escalated into a war between European empires and shook the very core of humanity. Probably, history seems to be repeating itself, for the same shimmering is being witnessed today in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where the forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan have declined to de-escalate the military standoff. While the military unrest in the initial stages was quite localized and more of a regional conflict, things quickly escalated after Turkey lent its support to Azerbaijan, owing to the ethnic background and the Muslim majority population of the country. Though Armenia, a Christian majority state, is itself a part of a security alliance with Russia; unlike Turkey, the Russians have largely maintained a low profile, continuing to deal in arms with both the warring nations alike. Despite its regional footprint, the conflict has drawn in the regional rivals like Turkey and Russia (to some extent), and has become a major source of concern for the world at large. This article attempts to unpack the deep-rooted conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and analyzes the overall effect of this grave conflict on international peace and stability.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Region: Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan at war?
The recent friction between the Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a novel development and has persisted in some ways for a long period of time. However, religion does not play any role in the present modern-day conflict, but the major blame for the divide rests with Joseph who placed the Armenian majority region of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan after the conquest of Caucasus by the Red Army in the early 1920s. When the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s, Armenia’s regional parliament voted for the region’s transfer to Armenia; the Soviet authorities turned down the demand. As a reaction to such denial, the ethnic Armenians in the region declared independence in 1991 leading to a war between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, who had the constant backing from Armenia itself. The war continued and by 1994, the Armenians had succeeded in driving out the Azerbaijani army from their territory and surrounding swathes of territory. Even though Nagorno-Karabakh is virtually independent from Azerbaijan’s control, it is not recognized as an independent country — not even Armenia supports the region financially and militarily. As a result of this non-recognition, the region Nagorno-Karabakh at present is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but most of the region is controlled by Armenian separatist forces.
Escalating Tensions: Why have things taken a turn for the worse?
It cannot be denied that the Nagorno-Karabakh region was prone to escalation in past too. However, in the past Russia and Turkey had time and again cooperated to tone down tensions. The settlement which was reached 26 years ago, was a temporary one and left about 600,000 Azerbaijanis stranded and Nagorno-Karabakh vulnerable to attack by Azerbaijan, which considers it as part of its own territory. The Armenian revolution, known in Armenia as Merzhir Serzhin (English meaning, Reject Serzh), was a series of anti-government protests in Armenia from April to May 2018 staged by various political and civil groups led by a member of the Armenian parliament — Nikol Pashinyan. Eventually, Serzh Sargsyan, the then leader, resigned and Nikol Pashinyan was sworn in as the new Prime Minister
The revolution ushered in a new generation of leadership, which was determined towards towards the resolution of the conflict by diplomatic means or if required, by resorting to force. However, the aspirations have dwindled, with Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, taking a firm stance, and in the eyes of Azerbaijani leaders, a very provocative one regarding the present escalations. The current pandemic and the crashing markets have taken a toll on the Azerbaijani energy prices, and perhaps the separatists have encashed this opportunity to expand their domain of control as per the words of Laurence Broers, the Caucasus program director at Conciliation Resources, a peace-building group.
Another reason for the escalating tensions and involvement of powerful international players is the growing economic and military strength of Azerbaijan, which is a major oil exporter. To date, the clashes have claimed the lives of almost 150 people and have involved Russia and Turkey. Of late with the gradual reduction of US interventions in the Middle-East under the Trump administration, the co-operation between these two states in the Middle East have changed from a co-operative one to a highly assertive one.
With both Turkey and Russia engaging as per their capabilities and intent, the sparks threaten to take the conflict to a wider expanse. Though, the Russians have still saved their cards, it is pertinent to note that they already share a security truce with Armenia and hence, the stillness is not expected to last long. All the diplomatic relations, the oil scavenging nature of the west, economic scenarios and the deeply rooted religious issues have equally contributed to the escalating tensions, which are at their highest since the early 1980s.
Is the History repeating itself?
Regional conflicts growing into full-blown global wars are not a novel phenomenon. We have already witnessed two World Wars which began as small conflicts and later on shook the very foundations of humanity. The present case and the growing tensions have potentially laid the foundation for a wider conflict. With civilian casualties involved, it is just a matter of time before the international organizations get themselves involved in the issue at hand. The South Caucasus is very crucial from the point of view of gas and oil supply from Azerbaijan into Turkey and further to Europe and beyond. With Azerbaijan being a key supplier and regulating almost 5% of Europe’s gas and oil demands, which has in turn had reduced the EU’s dependence on Russia, the fight coming close to many of these pipelines is an alarming development, as wars for resources have always been precursor to large scale conflicts. With the growing tensions involvement of external players, we have reached a juncture where appeasing of either of these nations is not an option, but rather a staunch call for co-operation is the need of the hour.
Time and again peace talks between the two nations have failed, owing to the lack of intent from the mediating parties. At a time when Turkey is exhibiting signs of religious majoritarianism and Russia is all bent towards filling the power vacuum in the Middle East, these two small nations can easily turn into sites of yet another Great Power rivalry. The situation is already grim in the Middle East where both Russia and Turkey vie for influence in Syria. At the moment, neither Turkey nor Russia have directly involved themselves into this conflict and have so far restricted themselves to only official rhetoric, the continuous arms supply by Russia and the open support by Turkey in favour of Azerbaijan needs to be checked.
The first step that needs to be implemented is mediating a ceasefire agreement between the two warring nations. Foremostly, the safety of civilians needs to be ensured. Any negotiations that take place should ensure contentment of both parties and an unbiased plan of resolution. It is high time that the international community works in a constructive way towards pacifying the existing conditions through peaceful negotiations. Finally, Russia and Turkey need to keep their aspirations aside and push for a diplomatic negotiations between the two nations. As a step towards this ‘greater good’, what could be a better starting stage than attempting to diffuse tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Raj Shekhar is a student at the National University of Study and Research in Law, Ranchi. Mohd Rameez Raza is a student at the Integral University, Lucknow.