The consensus among political experts is that the Democrats haven’t done enough for Latinos. Many hold a grudge against the Democratic establishment, and former President Barack Obama in particular, due to the record number of deportations during his term and his inability to pass an immigration reform bill. Janet Murguía, president of UnidosUS, called President Obama the “deporter in chief,”, and Vice-President Joe Biden didn’t leave the administration unsullied.
It is, however, unwise to think Latinos only care about immigration reform. Polls show that the economy, healthcare and the coronavirus outbreak far outrank immigration when it comes to what Latinos care about in 2020. Nonetheless, polls by NALEO and Latino Decisions show that half of Latino households nationwide haven’t been contacted by either campaign. The political elite just isn’t listening to Latinos.
The number of Latino voters in the U.S. has reached an all-time high.
32 million Latinos are projected to be eligible voters this year, making them the largest ethnic minority in the electorate. A Pew report has related a sharp decline in the share of eligible White voters, with the Latino share of the electorate being the largest contributors to the trend.
This year, depending on which divides manifest in the electorate, the ‘Latino vote’ could end up defining the results in a number of key states. The consequences of such an electoral shift undeniable, but conceptions of a monolithic Latino voting bloc being largely unfounded and misunderstood.
Latinos are not partisan, and these trends do not necessarily signal a Democrat victory.
Latinos tend to be, in board brush strokes, more Democratic than Republican. However, they do not vote as a bloc, and one in five Latinos voted for Trump in 2016. Some political divides have had similar effects to the ones we see in other electoral groups. However, the Latino electoral is far more unique and complex than many give it credit for. Three subsects merit special attention: young Latinos, Cuban Americans and the emerging Latino evangelical community.
The Latino electorate’s growth stems largely from the U.S.-born population coming to age, with Latinos who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018 accounting for 80% of growth. Hence, much of the political capital Latino voters hold comes from its younger members. Yet, young Latinos are more liberal but less loyal to the Democratic Party than their older counterparts and the demographic has notoriously low turnout rates. Much like other young liberals across the country, Latinos tend to be dissatisfied with Democratic candidates, and Biden is struggling to connect with them. However, Sanders was able to mobilise young Latinos and benefited greatly from their support in the democratic primary. This demonstrates that young Latinos aren’t averse to turning out for the Democrats but won’t do so ‘automatically’ or simply because of partisan loyalties. Young Latinos are demanding more from their leadership and the traditional Democratic establishment isn’t taking note.
Cuban Americans are the primary political outliers in the Latino community. Traditionally Republicans, Cuban Americans have supported Trump’s in record. They may make up only 4% of the national Latino population, but they are disproportionately concentrated in Florida, where the electoral college make-up gives them an especially large sway over the ultimate election outcome. Recent polls reflect Trump’s success, showing Cuban Americans to be supporting Trump over Biden by 38 points. This political divide is likely traced to successful Republican messaging about radical left-wing ideology, which resonates with immigrants from socialist governments, as well as Trump’s hardliner stance on Venezuela.
Mexican Americans, on the other hand, are overwhelming Democratic, and 81% of voters of Mexican decent supported Clinton in 2016. As they make up 63% of the national Latino population, Mexican Americans are the main drivers of the Democrat Latino narrative. The majority of Mexican Americans live in California and Texas, both considered ‘safe’ seats for the Democrats and Republicans. Thus, while Mexican Americans represent a majority of Latinos, their political influence isn’t proportional, especially when you compare them to Cuban Americans.
Latino evangelicals’ numbers have been rising – and they now represent 2% of the national population. Unlike White and Black evangelicals, their political affiliation remains uncertain. The population is reportedly torn between their conservative values and their Latino identity. Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, who delivered a prayer when Trump was inaugurated, said Democrat’s stances on issues like abortion will cause most Latino evangelicals to vote for Trump or stay home on election day. And in Florida the Trump campaign is investing heavily on the Latino evangelical community, focusing on religion and abortion as talking points. Latino evangelicals in states like Florida and Texas may be part of the reason why Biden has struggled to gain traction with Latinos.
Results in key battleground states have the potential to be determined by Latino voters.
Florida, Arizona and Texas have all proven to be politically competitive in the lead up to the 2020 elections, and much of this phenomenon can be linked to their growing Latino electorate.
The Trump campaign has always invested in Florida staunchly. While most polls show Biden leading, the race is tight in the Sunshine state, and Biden’s inability to reach Florida’s Latino voters may be his downfall. He is still underperforming Hillary Clinton, who carried the Latino vote in Florida by 62 percent to 35 percent in 2016, according to network exit polls. Bloomberg’s $100 million-dollar investment in Florida may stifle worries, and sources say Latinos will play a central role in the plans, but we are yet to see whether throwing money at the problem will produce real results.
The Trump campaign neither needs nor expects to win Latino support in the state. Instead, they aim to keep the margins that already exist intact while striving to supress Latino turnout. And the Biden camp have their work cut out for them. The Democrats need to simultaneously court the younger, more left-leaning, Latino voters in the state while assuring Cuban Americans and Latino evangelicals that Trump’s characterisation of Biden as a dangerous socialist is untrue. Regardless, mobilising the Latino vote is crucial for his success, and if the current trend persists Biden may not be able to sustain his lead.
Arizona, considered an emerging battleground state, has seen substantial change to the composition of its electorate. Latino voters now make up 24% of the eligible voters and are imperative to turning the red state blue in November. Arizona hasn’t voted for a Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, and while Trump won in 2016 his margins were remarkably smaller than previous candidates. This change has been chiefly attributed to the Latino population, alongside immigration from other states like California.
Current polls show Trump and Biden neck and neck, and the senate race may elucidate just how close the race really is. Democratic nominee Mark Kelly is polling exceptionally well, with most polls indicating he will win against incumbent Martha McSally. However, in recent weeks the Trump campaign has strengthened outreach efforts to win over voters in Arizona. While some Democrats remain hopeful, Biden will need to reach out to Latino voters if he wants to win in Arizona, which local Latino leaders say he has failed to do so far.
Texas is traditionally considered a red state, but it has been slowly shifting to purple in the last couple of years. The state experienced blue-wave momentum during the 2018 midterms, with four democratic candidates winning, and many relying on the Latino vote to do so. Trump is leading in polls state wide, but 66% of Latino Texans reportedly prefer Biden. Nonetheless, Jason Villalba, the President of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, told the Houston Public Media that Hispanic support for Trump has reached figures that McCain and Romney were ever able to achieve.
Winning Texas is a longshot for Biden and Latino Texans’ support will not be enough to turn the state blue. However, the changing demographics are an opportunity for the Democratic party to court voters, in a more long-term investment. If a Democratic presidential candidate is to ever take the Grand Canyon state, it will be with the support of Latinos.
Latino voters represent an immense opportunity for Democrats; however, the Biden campaign’s short sightedness may mean Democrats lose out in November.
No one expects Biden to lose the ‘Latino vote’; the question is by what margin he will win, and if the Democratic establishment isn’t careful, they may end up missing the opportunity to rally 32 million voters. Latinos have historically low turnout rates, which means campaigns don’t invest in them as much as they can. However, polls show that 80% of Latinos are ‘almost certain’ they will vote – which would shatter historical average Latino turnout. If these numbers are true, then Latino voters may decide who wins in November. That means there is all the more reason for Democrats to step up and invest in Latinos.
Unless Biden seriously attempts to connect with Latinos and makes them an integral part of his policies, they might forsake him. Latino voters are not an electoral fad nor partisan voters, and they are tired of being ignored – because saying a few words in Spanish and posting pictures with famous Latino celebrities is not enough.