In the wake of Biden’s result in South Carolina, it is safe to assume that Democratic establishment has been busy. Less than two days after the primary and just two days before Super Tuesday, Biden’s main centrist contenders – Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar – have dropped out of the race and endorsed the former Vice President.
Following disappointing results in earlier races, Biden came back swinging. Alongside the result came sharp pressure on moderate candidates to coalesce their support around him. More than anything, today’s twist brings uncertainty into Super Tuesday – a day that could decide the outcome of the entire election.
The Democratic Party has chosen their candidate. Whether voters agree or not, remains to be seen. The consolidation around Biden is ultimately a testament to America’s growing division – not to its unity. To heal it, the eventual candidate will need more than rhetoric.
Close, but no cigar
As punditry heated up in mid-2019, few predictions had Buttigieg and Klobuchar with a serious chance of success. Summer debates featured over 20 candidates over two nights, including Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Beto O’Rourke, all touted as serious contenders. Meanwhile, Buttigieg was facing a slump to five points nationwide and Klobuchar was little more than an afterthought, averaging little more than a point.
As their competitors’ war chests ran dry and heads began to roll, the midwestern pair clung on, hoping for a breakthrough to propel them into contention.
Luckily for both of them, that breakthrough came. For Buttigieg, a strong ground game in Iowa coupled with significant investment of time and resources into the state and emerging as the unexpected winner. Klobuchar, on the other hand, picked up a surprising third-place finish in New Hampshire, beating out Elizabeth Warren despite the odds. A strong debate performance in Las Vegas spurred talk of Klomentum.
Ultimately, neither had a serious chance at the nomination. Iowa and New Hampshire are notoriously unrepresentative of the country, and even more unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate. Both struggled with voters of colour since the early days of his campaign, and consistently failed to improve.
South Carolina was bound to be the death knell for the moderate duo. Polls leading up to the Sunday primary showed them with floor-level support among African American voters, and exit polls confirmed this to be true. Klobuchar and Buttigieg picked up one and two percent, respectively.
Cabinet selection
There are many theories as to why the flurry of dropouts and endorsements (with O’Rourke the latest to add his name to the list) came so suddenly. Only one should be taken seriously. For better or for worse, this is the most concerted effort in the 2020 race to stop Bernie Sanders from achieving the nomination. Biden got the South Carolina win he desperately needed,and scaled up the pressure on his fellow moderates.
With endorsements (or promises thereof) coming mere hours after dropping out of the race, it is clear that Buttigieg and Klobuchar chose not to hedge their bets. Hopping on a plane to join Biden’s Dallas rally the same day, the midwestern moderates have cheerily put all of their eggs in the Biden basket. Allegedly, their reason is party unity; more likely, their reason is party politics.
There is little doubt that backdoor deals played a part in timing and execution. With four candidates vying over moderate voters across the country, Sanders was able to consolidate a base that had him projected to win every state on Super Tuesday after his Nevada win. The Democratic establishment was in panic; so much so that rumours swirled that John Kerry was considering throwing his hat into the race. FiveThirtyEight had candidates except Sanders and Biden slipping to odds of 1 to 100.
Now, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are being lauded by centrist commentators as brave and selfless, sacrificing themselves for the good of party and country. Once more, the explanation is likely to be more cynical.
Reporting in the Times and Politico stressed that conversations have been occurring “at the highest levels” among the moderate campaigns. Apart from a Veep spot, precious cabinet positions are up for grabs. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have decades of politics ahead of them. There is no question of them stopping now, having overperformed and made a name for themselves against the odds.
Having made their bet, Klobuchar and Buttigieg are going to put everything behind Biden. Whether you buy their message of unity or not, one thing is certain: their political future depends on him.
Cracks in the system
Going into Super Tuesday, the consolidation of moderate support has increased uncertainty as well as the chances of a brokered convention. The narrowing of the moderate field will certainly hurt Sanders’ chances, but it is impossible to predict by how much.
More than a significant swing in voters from either candidate, the small boost that Warren and Biden (and maybe Bloomberg) will receive may propel them to reach the eligibility threshold in certain states. In California, for instance, Warren and Bloomberg have hovered consistently below the 15 points necessary.
A deeper dive into the sudden alignment behind Biden highlights the fissures forming within the party and the country. As the chance of a brokered convention increase, the chances of all-out war within the Democratic Party are becoming increasingly likely. The primary process, designed to produce a candidate who represents the party, is increasingly looking unfit for purpose. More than any specific failings (yes, I mean Iowa) the process is delivering uncertainty at every stage. In early January, Biden’s campaign was proclaimed dead on arrival. Now, he is creeping back into frontrunner territory.
A recent poll in Texas showed Democratic voters with higher favourability for socialism than capitalism – an outcome unthinkable five years ago. Barry Goldwater would be spinning in his grave.
Biden and his endorsements are ringing out with a message of unity and healing. Klobuchar threw shade at Sanders for trying to “out-divide the divider in chief”. During the announcement that he would be dropping out, Buttigieg also issued a warning aimed at the Vermont Senator: “We need leadership to heal a divided nation, not drive us further apart”.
It seems the irony of their own rhetoric is lost on the midwestern duo. With support across all demographics, Sanders has come closer to a unifying candidate than any other to date. Despite facing claims that “nobody likes him”, Sanders has consistently had the best favourability ratings among Democratic candidates – the latest Monmouth University poll showing him at a net 53 points to Biden’s 38. Perhaps an act of true party unity would have been to back the candidate most popular with voters.
Alas, party unity has no necessary connection to what its electorate actually wants. As Democratic voters trend left at an astonishing pace, their elected representatives are lagging behind. The contention of moderate Democrats seems to be that a centrist agenda is the best path forward to reverse the extreme polarisation of American politics. Rather, it may end up being a band-aid for a bullet wound. The country is not just divided along ideological lines. Wealth inequality is skyrocketing, and with it, political polarisation is inevitable.
Divided against itself
Healing the deeply divided country will take more than rhetoric. Healing the divide will take more than promises of “civil debate”. Without meaningful change to make the United States more equal and just for all, we will face threats that make Trump look like the new normal.
It is naive to believe the divisions in American society are entirely attributable to Donald Trump. Somehow, moderate Democrats seem to be ignoring the underlying social causes that drive political polarisation. Since 1989, the share of wealth held by the top 1% of Americans has grown from 24% to 32%. In the same time, the share of the bottom 50% dropped from 3.7% to 1.5%. As wealth is continuously becoming concentrated in the hands of the few, that frustration and anger becomes a predominant sentiment in the electorate.
It is no secret that millions of Americans feel like they are being left behind. Where Trump weaponised this sentiment by blaming immigrants, globalisation, the press, or whoever his newly found nemesis happens to be on that week, the root of the sentiment cannot be ignored. In a trenchant exploration of polarization in American politics, Ezra Klein wrote the following: “The simplest way to activate someone’s identity is to threaten it, to tell them they don’t deserve what they have, to make them consider that it might be taken away.”
Trump stoked this feeling, but he did not start it. The growing influence of wealth in politics has excised working and middle-class Americans from political discourse. Just a few weeks ago, the prospect of two billionaires running head to head for the Presidency seemed likely. Moderate Democrats seem to think that the solution to this is to go back to the 2000s consensus – where civility is the marker of a healthy Democracy.
There is a reason that consensus collapsed. With millions of Americans slipping further into poverty, thousands dying from the opioid epidemic, and hundreds dying in mass shootings, perhaps anger and frustration is the justified response.
Moderate Democrats are quick to chastise Sanders for his “divisive” rhetoric; however, a rhetoric of unity that is not translated into concrete action will be much more harmful.