Going into the Iowa caucus, Democrats were largely optimistic. Sanders and Biden led the pack, providing a strong option for both moderate and progressive voters. A week later, official results are yet to be announced and the debacle has rocked the credibility of the Democratic party.
Once more, Democrats have shown that they will stop at nothing to damage their own electoral chances. Letting his foot of the gas, Biden has allowed Sanders to emerge as a clear frontrunner and opened a channel for Bloomberg to build on as he rises steadily in the polls.
Winners
Sanders and Buttigieg both crowned themselves victors in Iowa, with the South Bend Mayor looking likely to pick up a couple more delegates than Sanders as the result is finalised.
There is no doubt that Mayor Pete outperformed predictions and won an impressive political victory in Iowa. On the other hand, the effect of this win on his chances of winning the nomination seems negligible. Iowa was a must win for Buttigieg, who saw his polling numbers slipping from ten to seven points in the lead up to the caucus. Clinching the win gave him a much-needed Iowa bounce, muted due to the controversy surrounding caucus results. Buttigieg has made hay of his moment in the spotlight – emphasizing his core message of bringing together an “extraordinary coalition” of voters to topple President Trump.
Data from Iowa suggests that it was money and management rather than message that gave Buttigieg the needed win. He put his eggs in the Iowa basket early on, having 33 campaign offices in the state by late January. His ground operation outspent and outhired every other Democrat. With no impeachment hearings tying him down, Pete held over 50 town halls across Iowa in the space of three weeks. His strategy and organisation were impeccable but unscalable. Without the name recognition or distinctive message of other candidates, he would need to replicate his Iowa feat again and again. The reality is that he simply cannot afford it.
Most of the bounce has been limited to news headlines and support from moderate Democrats. Nationwide, he is polling below ten percent and is not leading any state primary polls. Compared to the 33 field offices in Iowa, Buttigieg has four in South Carolina, a state where he trails Biden by a crushing 23 points. Buttigieg’s troubles with communities of colour has been a struggle throughout his campaign. If he fails to assuage concerns by overperforming in Nevada and South Carolina, the Iowa bump will fall flat before Super Tuesday.
With Biden’s disastrous night, Sander’s slight underperformance, and Buttigieg’s surprise victory, Iowa raised more questions than it answered. Across the board, the consensus seems to be that Iowa was a win for nobody. As the dust settles, however, it seems that nobody has a name – Michael Bloomberg.
Infinite Money
Bloomberg – the former Mayor of New York – has seen his popularity has quietly skyrocket. Sanders has been consistently outraising and outspending the Democratic field, with one major exception. The Vermont Senator’s $50 million Q4 spend is dwarfed by Bloomberg, who poured nearly $200 million into the race with $134 million on TV ads alone.
Bloomberg has flooded the nation’s airwaves with cash, buying thousands of ads with a view to gain popularity in key Super Tuesday states. His 60-second Superbowl spot set him back a measly 11 million – more cash than Warren and Biden had on hand at the time of its airing. As he smelled opportunity in the wake of Iowa, he announced that he would double his ad spending. “Those are old rules” he said, when asked about the importance of the first four states to securing the nomination.
They say money can’t buy happiness – but it certainly can buy the American Presidency. With 17 points in one of the latest polls, Bloomberg is third nationwide. In the past few months, his rise has been nothing short of astronomical. Reading the news pre-Iowa, one thing was clear. Bernie was romping his was to the top of the pack and solidifying his front-runner credentials. His three-month rise started in late November and saw him gain a significant six points. Bloomberg only started his campaign on 24 November. In the same period, he has gained a terrifying 10 points.
To the claim that Bloomberg is buying his way to the Presidency – he offers no response. Having received $200 in individual donations (no that is not missing any zeroes) he has pushed the DNC into scrapping the donation requirement for debate participation. Tom Steyer, the other billionaire with his eyes on the democratic nomination, was able to reach the threshold and get himself onto the debate state prompting criticism that Bloomberg has shown no desire to build a grassroots movement.
To put it bluntly, Bloomberg’s campaign shows contempt for the democratic process. His popularity is no testament to political skill, unique messaging, or excellent on-the-ground organisation. His popularity revolves around one thing and one thing only – his chequebook. Nationwide, the former Mayor is polling fourth. Small d democratic sensibilities be damned, his strategy seems to be paying off.
For those familiar with Bloomberg’s style, this should come as no surprise. In his last campaign for Mayor, he outspent his hapless rival 16-1, only to win by four points and lose most working-class areas of the city. In his time as Mayor, he scaled up stop-and-frisk and sent thousands behind bars for drug possession, all the while joking that he smoked marijuana in the past and “enjoyed it”. Little seems to suggest that he has any respect for ordinary people in America.
Rampant income inequality in the United States is a secret to no one. If Bloomberg has his way, the American people will be choosing between two billionaires come fall. It is difficult to imagine the former Republican Mayor radically restructuring the American economy or political system. In fact, it is difficult to imagine him doing much to help working class people at all.
Losers
Although Biden suffered a disastrous result in Iowa, the real loser was the Democratic Party. An incumbent has never lost the presidency in a time of economic upturn. The Party is desperate to redeem itself from the failures of 2016 – most notably the DNC scandal – and position itself as an alternative to Trump and the GOP at all levels. It is safe to say that, last Monday, they failed miserably.
The Shadow app – with widely reported ties to Buttigieg – has spurned conspiracy theories on left and right alike. Although incompetence and poor organisation is a far more likely explanation, it is hard to blame the Bernie Bros for being wary. Last time Sanders put forward a strong candidacy, the DNC did everything in their power to stop him.
Whether conspiracy or incompetence, the Iowa caucus was the perfect storm for Democrats. A state that is deeply unrepresentative of the country and even more unrepresentative of the party is elevated to VIP status simply out of respect for tradition. The state also chooses to employ a deeply undemocratic process – supressing disabled people, minorities, and single parents. As Jack Shafer mused in Politico: “If Iowa really mattered, Mike Bloomberg—the richest guy running for president—would have arranged his schedule to run in the caucuses.”
The Iowa myth was tenable when party elites were happy to play along. It was tenable when things were running smoothly. With glib headlines such as “Goodbye, Iowa”, and in the face of embarrassing failure, many seem ready to toll the death knell of the odd tradition.
To Democrats, the damage is done. Despite all major primary contenders consistently beating Trump in every battleground state poll since their inception, the media narrative is one of incompetence and embarrassment. Trump is an expert in weaponising chaos and confusion, and Iowa gave him the perfect opportunity to do just that. Division within the party is inevitable during the primary season – whether through attack ads or debate shade. The Iowa caucus did much more than that. It sowed doubts in the minds of voters across the country about the credentials of the Democratic Party as a whole. The long-term effects of the failures in Iowa remain unclear, with the result having caused uncertainty above anything else.
A word of caution to the DNC: don’t screw it up again – millions of lives depend on it. Mayor Bloomberg, on the other hand is yet to show that his campaign is more than an anti-Trump vanity project. To truly compete, Democrats need a campaign that truly believes in helping the American people.