Israel headed to the polls on Tuesday for the second time in 2019. The contest was widely seen as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. After a fraught election, neither Netanyahu nor his main challenger, former IDF commander Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, have an easy path to form a coalition government.
The election was triggered by Netanyahu’s inability to cobble together a coalition after elections in April. Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu’s former chief of staff and protégé, refused to lead his Israel Betenu party into a right-wing religious coalition. Lieberman’s stated reason for the refusal was his desire to push through the Draft Bill. This bill would end provisions exempting the ultra-orthodox from army service and was unpalatable to Netanyahu’s ultra-orthodox allies. Netanyahu and his allies dispersed the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, to prevent Gantz the opportunity to form a government instead.
For Netanyahu, the need to form a favorable coalition is not only politically expedient but personally vital. On the 2nd of October, he is scheduled to face pre-indictment hearings in three separate cases where he is charged with fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. Netanyahu reportedly seeks a coalition that will grant him immunity from these charges.
Under the current law, 61 members of Knesset must pass an act of parliamentary immunity on Netanyahu’s behalf to shield him from charges. While many parties have balked at this suggestion, Netanyahu’s allies on the religious right agreed to provide him those votes.
While the election results prevent the formation of an easy coalition, some results are clear. Strikingly, Netanyahu’s Likud party lost 7 seats in the 120-seat Knesset while Lieberman gained 3. Lieberman was known in the past as a militant defense hawk. In these elections, he sharply cut towards the center, riding a wave of liberal, secular support for standing up to the ultra-orthodox. Netanyahu’s campaign of invective against Israel’s Arab minority was rewarded by the highest Israeli Arab turnout in decades. The Arab-majority Joint List grew by 3 seats.
The big question is what will happen next. There are 4 options on the table:
Right-Wing Government + Lieberman
One option is a government whose core includes Likud, the Ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, and Yamina, a loose union of 3 right-wing parties led by former justice minister Ayelet Shaked. To get a majority, they would need to add Lieberman’s Israel Betenu as they tried in April.
Despite denying it publicly, this is still Netanyahu’s preferred option for two reasons.
Firstly, Netanyahu is wary of ambitious coalition partners who keep threatening early elections to increase their power. Yair Lapid, Gantz’ deputy in the Blue-White party, did this this to him in the past. He trusts the religious right to be stable partners.
Secondly, Netanyahu knows his allies on the religious right would grant him the immunity from his corruption charges that he seeks.
Lieberman has repeatedly ruled this out as an option, calling for a secular unity government that includes both Likud and Blue-White out of principle. It’s unclear whether this is a genuine principled stance or the political posturing Lieberman is more commonly associated with. A unity government wouldn’t need him for a majority, reducing his bargaining position. If Lieberman has a price to join a right-wing government, Netanyahu will pay it.
National Unity Government
The option on the lips of most Israeli pundits is a national unity government that would include Likud and Blue-White with potentially other parties to ensure a larger Knesset majority.
Netanyahu has been calling for Gantz to enter talks for such a government “without preconditions”. That outreach rings hollow since he already signed a document with Shas, UTJ, and Yamina pledging to only enter a government that includes those parties with him as prime minister.
The reason for Netanyahu’s preference to include these parties in a coalition is clear and outlined above. But it would not be in Gantz’ interest to play second fiddle to Netanyahu. Gantz defeated the incumbent in these elections. He has no reason to dilute his power to Netanyahu’s religious allies.
Even without the right-wing parties, this option appears destined to fail because of the question of who would lead it. Netanyahu has suggested a rotating prime ministership where Netanyahu and Gantz would each lead the country for 2 years. While this model worked when Labor’s Peres and Likud’s Shamir rotated leadership between 1984-1988, it’s unlikely to work now.
Netanyahu would not be able to agree to Gantz holding the prime ministership first. If Netanyahu is indicted while a minister in Gantz’ administration, Gantz would be legally obligated to fire him to stand trial. But Gantz also shouldn’t agree to taking the second term. His advisors fear Netanyahu will find a pretense to go to elections in 2 years’ time rather than handing over power.
Third Elections
Netanyahu has been threatening that if no national unity government can be formed, the country should brace itself for another round of elections. To do this, Netanyahu would need the Knesset to agree to dissolve itself like it did in May. The circumstances don’t appear to support this happening.
Netanyahu’s allies don’t have the majority needed to dissolve the Knesset. He would need either Israel Betenu or the Joint List, a party representing the Arab minority in Israel, to join. Both parties supported the dissolution bill in May. The circumstances of both have now changed. Lieberman saw his support double in these elections, while Israeli Arab turnout was at its highest point in 35 years. Neither stands to gain from new elections.
Moreover, Netanyahu’s own Likud party doesn’t want new elections. The party supported dissolving the Knesset in May believing their power would grow. Instead, Likud lost 7 seats in relation to the April vote as the electorate punished it for dragging the country to the polls again.
Likud Palace Coup
Finally, the Likud could opt to oust Netanyahu and name a replacement among their ranks to lead the coalition talks for Likud.
A successor to Netanyahu would have an easier time building a coalition. They would be unencumbered by worry of impending indictments, commitments to the ultra-orthodox, and the personal grievances against Netanyahu. This successor would find the path open to a unity government with Gantz. They could negotiate the second term of a rotating prime ministership.
Likud lawmakers are hesitant to execute such a coup for good reason. Netanyahu has been the strongman of Israeli politics for years and is a shrewd political operator. He has successfully sidelined any politician that posed a threat to him. In the past few months, however, his aura of omnipotence has faded. Netanyahu’s failure to form a government in May was akin to seeing a God bleeding.
Netanyahu has led Likud for the last 14 years. In his decade as Israel’s prime minister, he has provided positions of power for many who comprise his party. In recent years, he has needed to give more positions away to coalition partners, leaving scraps for his own party. There are signs of Netanyahu-fatigue, even inside the Likud. Now that he lost an election, even the argument that he’s Likud’s strongest electoral asset is being questioned.
Various leaks report intensifying internal dissatisfaction with Netanyahu and the formation of plots. Nevertheless, no one has dared to take the first shot so far. Remembering the 1990 UK Conservative Party palace coup against Thatcher, everyone wants to be John Major – not Michael Heseltine.
While fear of Netanyahu is great, fear of electoral decimation in a third election is greater. Faced with the option of cushy positions in a unity government without Netanyahu, the knives could well come out.
Conclusion
The only person who can predict what will happen with any accuracy is Avigdor Lieberman. If Gantz acts in his own interest, he will reject joining a unity government under Netanyahu. Netanyahu doesn’t have the votes to disperse the Knesset and trigger a third election. This means all the power is in Lieberman’s hands. Lieberman can choose to break his election promises and join the same right-wing religious government he refused to join in May. Netanyahu will pay any price for that to happen. If Lieberman keeps his promises, the Likud is likely to depose Netanyahu.
For years, Lieberman has campaigned under the slogan “Lieberman – a promise is a promise”. Let’s see how true that is.