With the Tory leadership race essentially over (barring a stunning upset in the final results announcement), thoughts have turned to who the presumed winner, Boris Johnson, might put in his Cabinet. Different choices could have significant implications for government policy and for the future of the UK, as this article will explore. Those positions where the appointments made are expected to have the most significant effects on policy will be the principal focus.
Deputy Prime Minister (currently Sir David Lidington (de facto))
Iain Duncan Smith – Johnson’s campaign chair – may be in line for the role. Such an appointment would indicate that Johnson intends to keep close to staunch Brexiteers, such as Duncan Smith, within the party, increasing the likelihood of a No Deal Brexit on October 31st. By contrast, another reported option, to give leadership rival Jeremy Hunt, who has not set a firm Brexit deadline, the role, would suggest that Johnson is willing to compromise regarding the 31st October deadline. One interesting choice here would be Gavin Williamson. Giving the role to the former Defence Secretary, who has previously clashed with the Civil Service, would suggest a serious intention to make changes to the Civil Service, which some Brexiteers have accused of being biased in favour of remaining in the EU.
Chancellor of the Exchequer (currently Philip Hammond)
The favourite for this role seems to be Sajid Javid. Appointing Javid would indicate a determination to invest heavily in infrastructure in the North of England, which Javid made a key plank of his own leadership bid. However, Dominic Raab may instead be in line for the role. Appointing Raab, a keen Brexiteer, would suggest an increased chance of the UK leaving the EU on WTO terms. Two other options are Liz Truss and Matt Hancock. Giving Truss, a passionate advocate for free market conservatism, the role would indicate that Johnson’s government intends to depart from May’s support for greater state intervention in the economy. Handing the role to Hancock, meanwhile, would suggest that a No Deal Brexit, which Hancock has spoken against in the past, is less likely, and that the contentious so-called ‘sin taxes’ which Hancock has introduced as Health Secretary will be retained.
Foreign Secretary (currently Jeremy Hunt)
Keeping Jeremy Hunt in the post would suggest that Johnson is willing to be flexible regarding the October 31st deadline, which Hunt has opposed. The same could be said if Johnson gives the job to Hunt supporter Amber Rudd, as some reports have suggested. By contrast, appointing an enthusiastic Leaver to the position, such as David Davis or Penny Mordaunt, would indicate that the 31st October deadline is set in stone.
Home Secretary (currently Sajid Javid)
A key role, in light of the focus on immigration during the 2016 referendum debate. A distinction can be drawn, not necessarily on Remain/Leave lines, between those who wish to secure control of immigration to reduce numbers, and those who sought control as an end in itself. Keeping Javid in the role would suggest a desire to use immigration controls to increase skilled migration, which Javid has advocated. By contrast, appointing Mordaunt, or Priti Patel, to the post may hint at a focus on reducing, not just controlling, immigration, given both emphasised doing so during the 2016 referendum debate.
Brexit Secretary (currently Steve Barclay)
Steve Barclay seems set to keep his job and be entrusted with conveying Johnson’s ‘ditch-the-backstop’ message to Michel Barnier. If Barclay is moved elsewhere, then sending Dominic Raab to the role would hammer home the message of ‘Brexit by Halloween’. Either way, given Johnson’s commitments regarding Brexit, whoever is Brexit Secretary will take a very different line on Brexit compared to the policy of May’s government thus far. The response of the EU to this new hard-line stance will help shape Johnson’s premiership.
Chief Whip (currently Julian Smith) and Leader of the House (currently Melvyn Stride)
Absolutely critical positions, given the impasse in Parliament. Johnson will rely on the holders of these two roles on bring together a majority in Parliament for his preferred Brexit outcome. Andrea Leadsom and prominent Johnson supporters Grant Shapps and Gavin Williamson are among those tipped for the two roles. The strategy adopted by the new Chief Whip and Leader of the House will be of vital importance. Will they seek to work closely with the European Research Group to pass measures towards a No Deal? Could they reach out to Labour backbenchers? Might they work with Change UK to ensure that Johnson defeats a possible vote of no confidence? Any of these options is possible.
Health Secretary (currently Matthew Hancock)
Also, if Matthew Hancock stays in the role, expect his aforementioned ‘sin taxes’ to stay too. Whoever takes this job will have to deal with the pressing issue of social care. There is also the issue of whether NHS funding should be increased, or whether Johnson will choose to prioritise other departments. Moreover, how will the Health Secretary aim to deliver the Conservatives’ objective of achieving ‘parity of esteem’ in how mental health is treated vis-à-vis physical health.
Education Secretary (currently Damian Hinds)
If Damian Hinds – an advocate for grammar schools – is replaced, May’s plan to introduce new grammar schools looks gone too. This could create an interesting dynamic since many Tory backbenchers – especially those who backed Johnson – favour grammars. Education is set to be a key priority for Johnson, who has promised to raise per-pupil spending in England, seeking to address the concerns of many parents over funding for schools.
Business Secretary (currently Greg Clark)
May loyalist Greg Clark looks to be heading out of the door, and his plans for greater state intervention in the economy are likely to go with him. If rumours of ‘Liz4Biz’ are correct, then Truss, as his replacement, is likely to more vigorously defend free markets. Truss is also a fierce critic of HS2, and if she is promoted, this could be a sign that Johnson intends to scrap the project in favour of investing in better rail links in the North of England.
Transport Secretary (currently Chris Grayling)
Whoever takes on this position will have to tackle the upcoming ideological battle over whether the railways should be renationalised. Dominic Raab and Gavin Williamson are among the potential choices for the position. Raab, who holds a commuter belt seat, would likely strongly oppose renationalisation while aiming to make the rail network more efficient and affordable for users.
Housing Secretary (currently James Brokenshire)
May ally James Brokenshire looks set to be replaced, most probably with current Environment Secretary Michael Gove, entrusted with the task of tackling England’s housing crisis by ramping up home building. A vast amount of housing needs to be built – shortages demand an effort similar to that launched by Harold Macmillan, who built 300,000 houses a year. As a result, expect the new Housing Secretary to clash with backbenchers who wish to protect the Green Belt from development.
Northern Ireland Secretary (currently Karen Bradley)
A critical position, in light of the Conservatives’ confidence-and-supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, and the ongoing suspension of devolved government in Northern Ireland. Johnson ally Conor Burns, Gavin Williamson, and Mark Harper are all in the frame for the role. Whoever takes the job will have to tackle polarising debates about abortion and same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland, along with the possibility of direct rule.
Overarching political direction…
Certain combinations of appointments will suggest that government policy is to move decisively in a particular direction.
…on Brexit…
Granting major roles to prominent Brexiteers such as Duncan Smith, Raab, and Davis would suggest that the UK is more likely to leave the EU on WTO terms come 31st October. This could lead to interesting internal cabinet dynamics if, as expected, certain ministers who are more sceptical of a No Deal exit, such as Rudd and Hancock, stay in government. It will be fascinating to see whether Rudd et al are willing, when push comes to shove, to remain in Cabinet if government policy is No Deal by the time October arrives. By contrast, if the more prominent positions are filled by those more wary of a No Deal, such as Hunt, Javid, and, of course, Rudd and Hancock, then the focus may well be leaving the EU on a revised deal. Such a position may not be supported by the staunch Brexiteers in government. Either way, on Brexit difficult, and potentially divisive, choices will have to be made.
…on economics…
If, as looks likely, prominent jobs are given to free market conservatives such as Truss, Javid, and Raab, then expect Johnson’s government to more rigorously defend markets than May has done. However, many of those tipped for Cabinet posts seem convinced of the merits of increased infrastructure spending, especially in the North of England. Hence, expect a key battleground at the next election to be economics, with Johnson challenging Corbynite socialism by arguing that only a dynamic market economy can pay for the strong public services and infrastructure which the country wants.
…on the Union…
With the SNP demanding a second Scottish independence referendum and the collapse of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, addressing issues for the Union will be an essential task facing the next Prime Minister. If, as predicted, Johnson makes himself ‘Minister for the Union’, and places a key ally and staunch Unionist such as Conor Burns or Ben Wallace as Northern Ireland Secretary, then expect the next government to reject demands for a second vote in Scotland, not grant further powers to the Scottish Parliament, robustly defend the Union, and possibly even implement direct rule in Northern Ireland.
Success or failure?
What would success look like for a Johnson government? An ideal outcome for the Conservatives would involve delivering Brexit by 31st October, reinforcing the Union, winning the economic argument against Corbyn, and regaining a majority in Parliament at the next election. Failure could see Brexit delayed or even reversed, the weakening or even the break-up of the Union, and Corbyn in Number 10. Which will it be? Making predictions at this time of immense political instability is unwise, but what can be said with certainty is that the choices which Johnson makes on Wednesday will have ramifications for years to come.